Update on the Situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

For eighteen days, the world watched the gradual collapse of diplomatic structures, rising social unrest within the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the systematic mobilization of U.S. and Israeli strike forces, ultimately culminating in the outbreak of an open armed conflict on a scale not seen in decades. This analysis aims to provide a detailed examination of the mechanisms that led to the military operations “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion,” as well as an assessment of their multi-layered consequences for global stability, commodity markets, and the foreign policy of European states, including Poland.

>> Update on the Situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran: January 26–February 10, 2026

>> Situation Update in the Islamic Republic of Iran – Status as of January 26, 2026

>> The Situation in Iran, 2025–2026: An Analysis

Airbus Defence and Space satellite imagery obtained by The New York Times shows that the residence of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in Tehran was completely destroyed as a result of morning strikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force.

The beginning of February 2026 was marked by desperate attempts to salvage the nuclear agreement, which had been in agony since the brief but devastating 12-day war in June 2025. Although communication channels in Oman remained open, the gap between Washington and Tehran had become insurmountable. The pivotal moment came with the third round of talks in Geneva, which began in mid-month. Envoys of the Donald Trump administration, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, presented the Iranian side with an ultimatum that amounted, in essence, to Tehran’s total nuclear capitulation.

The American demands included the immediate dismantlement of key facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the transfer of all enriched uranium stockpiles to the United States, and agreement to permanent restrictions without so-called sunset clauses. For the Iranian regime, founded on a doctrine of “resistance,” these terms were tantamount to voluntary regime change. Iran, represented by diplomats loyal to President Masoud Pezeshkian, insisted on its right to the civilian use of nuclear energy and demanded the complete lifting of UN and U.S. sanctions as a starting point for any concessions.

In this context, the role of mediators such as Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi proved insufficient. Despite reports on February 26 of “significant progress,” the reality was far darker. Donald Trump, who had returned to the White House with an “America First” agenda and a promise to end “endless wars,” paradoxically adopted the most aggressive stance toward Iran in history. His frustration mounted with each passing day of February, manifesting itself in public statements expressing “dissatisfaction” with Tehran’s position.

The Evolution of Positions in the Nuclear Negotiations

From a geopolitical perspective, the diplomatic failure in Geneva was not accidental but the result of strategic calculations. The Trump administration viewed the ongoing negotiations merely as cover for a planned kinetic operation, while Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, consistently built a narrative of an “existential threat” that could not be contained through treaties.

Parallel to the international crisis, February 2026 brought an unprecedented escalation of social tensions within Iran. The country found itself in a state of economic free fall, a direct consequence of the June 2025 war and the reimposition of an embargo on arms and oil trade in September 2025. The rapid devaluation of the rial meant that the life savings of millions of Iranians lost their value almost overnight, fueling mass protests.

On the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, observed on February 11, Iran did not celebrate. Instead, the country was paralyzed by public anger and the brutality of the security apparatus. The regime, aware of the threat, drastically shifted its budget priorities. Spending on internal security and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) increased by 150%, while public-sector wage raises amounted to only a fraction of the inflation rate. This stark disparity triggered a new wave of demonstrations, which peaked around February 23.

The dynamics of these protests indicate a significant paradigm shift. Iranians, traditionally divided between reformist and conservative factions, united in February 2026 under slogans calling for the complete overthrow of the theocracy. In response, the government unleashed a repression campaign on a scale rarely seen in modern Middle Eastern history. It is estimated that as many as 30,000 people may have been killed in the initial phase of suppressing the January protests alone, with the toll continuing to rise in February due to mass executions and the “disappearance” of activists.

Particular outrage surrounded the case of Vahid Lazer Monouchehri, a young protester whose body was returned to his family on February 26, fifty days after his disappearance. The remains bore signs of brutal torture, including gunshot wounds and injuries inflicted with a cleaver, becoming a symbol of the regime’s ruthlessness. Incidents of this kind prompted the international community, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to express full support for the protesters and call for the release of political prisoners.

Donald Trump used these developments as moral justification for military intervention, warning Tehran that the United States would not stand idly by while a regime massacred its own citizens. In reality, however, Iran’s internal destabilization was viewed in Washington and Jerusalem as a strategic opportunity to trigger “regime change” at the hands of the Iranians themselves, supported only by surgical strikes from abroad.

Since mid-February 2026, satellite intelligence and reports from military bases have indicated a large-scale concentration of U.S. and Israeli strike forces in the region. The Pentagon systematically repositioned air and naval assets, forming what President Trump described as a “powerful armada.” The key components of this force were the aircraft carriers USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln, which, together with guided-missile destroyers, took up positions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Oman.

Israel, for its part, placed its air force on the highest state of alert, training pilots for long-range missions. Defense Minister Israel Katz described these actions as necessary preemptive steps aimed at neutralizing the threat before Iran could launch its ballistic arsenal. From a technical perspective, the operation required extraordinary coordination, given the distances involved and Iran’s dense air defense network, reinforced by recent deliveries of Russian and Chinese systems.

This cooperation, though officially framed as a response to the nuclear program, had a far broader scope. It included the elimination of Iran’s naval forces and the destruction of pro-Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon and Syria, with the aim of completely isolating Tehran.

The United States and Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, 2026, constitutes one of the most serious blows to the power structures of the Islamic Republic since its founding. It is also an operation of dual character: militarily aimed at Iran’s offensive capabilities, primarily its missile infrastructure, air defense systems, and command-and-control architecture, and politically designed to weaken, and in the longer term undermine, the stability of the regime itself, as openly signaled by both Israeli authorities and the administration of Donald Trump.

The night of February 27–28 brought a series of synchronized strikes known under different codenames. On the Israeli side, the operation has been referred to as “Roaring Lion.” At the same time, the U.S. Department of Defense calls it “Operation Epic Fury,” describing it as a large-scale, multi-wave strike against targets across Iran. According to international news agencies, the first explosions were recorded almost simultaneously in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Witnesses in the capital reported violent tremors, flashes in the sky, and plumes of smoke rising from several districts, while local authorities ordered the closure of Iranian airspace.

Israeli officials have framed the operation from the outset as a preemptive strike. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel carried out a “preventive attack” to eliminate “immediate threats” posed by Iranian missiles and military infrastructure, which, according to Israeli intelligence, were being prepared for potential use against Israeli territory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, quoted by global media, described the regime in Tehran as an “existential threat” and called on Iranians to overthrow their own authorities, illustrating how closely the military objectives of the operation are intertwined with the political goal of regime change. On the U.S. side, President Donald Trump spoke of a “massive and ongoing” military campaign, whose official aims include destroying Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons, and ultimately “bringing down the regime.”

Based on available reporting, strikes in Tehran and western Iran focused on two main categories of targets: political-military leadership centers and air defense and missile infrastructure. In the capital, one of the primary targets was the office complex of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, located in a district that also houses the presidential palace and the National Security Council headquarters. According to analyses and BBC reporting, several missiles struck directly in the vicinity of Khamenei’s office, as well as the office of President Masoud Pezeshkian, causing severe damage to a complex that for decades functioned as the de facto command center of the state. Sources cited by agencies suggested that Khamenei himself had been evacuated earlier to an undisclosed location, indicating that Tehran anticipated a precision strike against the highest leadership.

Beyond the core political center, hits were reported in key downtown areas. The Fars News Agency, cited by Al Jazeera and other outlets, reported multiple strikes near University Street and the Jomhouri district, an important administrative axis where facilities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are located. In northern Tehran, local and international sources indicated explosions in the Seyed Khandan district, home to buildings associated with the security apparatus and military logistics. Iranian opposition sources (including NCRI and Iran International) also reported strikes against specific IRGC and IRGC intelligence facilities in and around Tehran. However, their exact names have not been independently confirmed.

In western Iran, the most detailed information is available for the Kermanshah region. The BBC, citing Israeli military sources, reported the destruction of an advanced SA-65 air defense system, a designation used by Israel for Russian S-300/S-400-class systems or their Iranian equivalents, deployed near the city. According to these accounts, the strike on the SA-65 was part of a plan to “punch holes” in Iran’s air defense umbrella in the west and enable subsequent sorties deeper into Iranian territory. Reports from Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, and Iranian opposition sources also described explosions at military bases and missile and ammunition depots in western provinces, though without publicly naming specific installations. Taken together, the target pattern in this region suggests a systematic effort to degrade IRGC air defense and missile capabilities.

The consequences for the IRGC and Iran’s ruling elite are difficult to overstate, though it is important to distinguish confirmed facts from unverified reports. A compilation of agency reports indicates that Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and IRGC Ground Forces Commander Mohammad Pakpour “likely” died in the Israeli airstrikes. Regional outlets have also reported the killing of “senior Iranian leaders.” Ali Shamkhani, a long-standing key figure in Iran’s security system, has likewise been listed among probable casualties, with Iran International reporting that he may have been killed during strikes on decision-making centers in Tehran.

Opposition and semi-official Iranian sources report very high casualties within IRGC ranks. According to Iran International, citing an alleged ISNA leak, “thousands” of IRGC members were killed or wounded, and “several high-ranking commanders” lost their lives in strikes on bases and command centers. The NCRI claims that significant numbers of mid- and senior-level officers were killed in attacks on IRGC facilities and government buildings in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Kermanshah, though these figures remain independently unverified. Experts cited by think tanks such as the Atlantic Council assess that this represents one of the most serious blows to Iran’s military and security elite in years, even if precise casualty numbers remain disputed, the fact that so many key sites were struck indicates a substantial degradation of IRGC command and coordination capacity.

At the same time, agencies such as Reuters have urged caution, noting that some of these reports require confirmation. Reuters stated that “several IRGC commanders may have been killed,” but could not independently verify these claims in the initial hours after the attack. The deaths of Nasirzadeh and Pakpour have been described as “probable,” but not confirmed by official statements from Tehran. There is also no confirmed evidence of injury or death of Khamenei himself; prevailing accounts suggest he was evacuated and lost his primary command center, but not physically eliminated.

In response, Tehran has activated both military and diplomatic-propaganda mechanisms. Militarily, Iran launched a salvo of missiles toward Israel, triggering air raid sirens across multiple regions and activating missile defense systems. Israeli sources reported intercepts by the Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome systems. Simultaneously, Iranian missiles and drones targeted selected U.S. bases in the region, consistent with Iran’s long-standing doctrine of “retaliation” against any “aggression.” However, the extent of damage on the U.S. side remains unclear. Diplomatically, Iran’s Foreign Ministry labeled the attack a “brutal aggression” and a “strike during negotiations,” claiming it proved Western “unreliability.” Authorities declared that there were now “no red lines” in retaliation and that all American and Israeli targets in the region were henceforth “legitimate.”

The domestic social impact inside Iran remains difficult to quantify in the first hours after the strikes. Reports from Tehran describe a mix of panic, fear, and a growing sense of isolation. Reuters described residents fleeing to basements and shelters, long lines at gas stations and shops, and widespread rumors of further bombing waves. In a country already experiencing brutal suppression of protests for weeks, there was no immediate spontaneous “rally-around-the-flag” effect. However, some segments of society may temporarily prioritize survival under bombardment over holding the regime accountable. At the same time, there is a risk that authorities will use external strikes to justify further militarization of domestic policy.

International reactions have been sharply divided. Russia condemned the operation as “reckless and unprovoked aggression,” warning of escalation while preserving its strategic flexibility as a partner of Tehran. Some European states expressed “deep concern” and called for de-escalation, stopping short of outright condemnation or endorsement of U.S. and Israeli actions. Regional states adopted positions ranging from cautious approval to open criticism, depending on their calculations about Iran and their fears of a broader regional war.

At this stage, it can be concluded that February 28, 2026, brought a strike that, militarily, seriously weakened Iran’s command infrastructure, air defense systems, and part of the IRGC’s personnel capacity, and politically opened a new phase of confrontation between Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv. It is known that Khamenei’s complex, the president’s office, key areas of Tehran, and elements of western Iran’s air defense network were targeted; it is highly probable that several important IRGC commanders, including Mohammad Pakpour and Aziz Nasirzadeh, and likely Ali Shamkhani, were killed, though Tehran has not officially confirmed a full casualty list. What remains unclear is the exact number of IRGC members and security personnel killed – figures such as “thousands of casualties” remain unverified estimates, as do potential damages to other undisclosed elements of military infrastructure. As additional satellite imagery, OSINT analyses, and more detailed statements from Tehran emerge, the full picture of the strike will become clearer. What is already evident, however, is that February 28, 2026, marked a turning point in the history of confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel.

The trajectory of events set in motion on February 28 is neither clear-cut nor easy to predict. Much depends on the resolve of Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem alike. In the short term, the most likely scenario is one of “managed escalation,” in which the United States and Israel continue a series of strikes against selected Iranian military and infrastructure targets while avoiding large-scale direct attacks on purely civilian sites. Tehran, in turn, would respond with limited missile fire, cyberattacks, and actions by its proxy organizations, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or the Houthis, seeking to raise the costs of the conflict without crossing the threshold that would trigger a full-scale regional war. Such a “controlled” conflict would entail sustained high-intensity tension, heightened risks of incidents in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, and periodic spikes in oil prices, while preserving the basic functionality of maritime routes and avoiding an immediate attempt to completely dismantle the Iranian state’s capabilities.

A second, realistic variant is an escalation spiral, discussed by institutions such as Chatham House, the Atlantic Council, and Forbes. If Iran concludes that the regime’s survival is at stake, it may decide to use “everything it has” – intensifying missile attacks on Israel, expanding strikes against U.S. bases and Gulf states, and seriously disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and other regional sea lanes. In such a scenario, the risk of attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar would rise sharply, and even a partial or temporary “choking” of Hormuz could push oil prices above 100 USD per barrel, triggering global economic turbulence. This type of escalation would also increase the likelihood of drawing additional regional and global actors into the conflict, as well as accidental incidents involving civilian ships or aircraft.

A third scenario, cited by some experts, envisions a rapid “cooling down” of the open military phase after several days or weeks of intense fighting, if both sides determine they have achieved their minimum objectives and that further escalation carries excessive risk. In this case, the United States and Israel could declare that they have fulfilled their primary mission, degrading Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, and shift back to diplomatic and sanctions pressure. Tehran, meanwhile, could proclaim a “successful retaliation” and the preservation of its capacity to continue fighting, while seeking to stabilize the domestic front. Such a scenario would, however, require at least minimal indirect communication channels (via third parties) and political will within the Iranian elite, which, according to Chatham House, currently perceives the conflict in existential terms and favors harder-line responses.

The most extreme scenario, though still considered in strategic analyses, is regime collapse resulting from the combination of external military pressure and mounting internal unrest, as discussed by the Atlantic Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. In this configuration, continued strikes on military infrastructure and leadership, alongside ongoing protests, could open a “window of opportunity” for political change in Iran. However, the literature on authoritarian transitions underscores that such processes are inherently unpredictable and can just as easily lead to chaotic state fragmentation as to the emergence of a new form of authoritarianism. Looming behind all these scenarios is the risk of unintended escalation, including nuclear escalation. Analyses of proliferation risks and preventive wars indicate that as tension and uncertainty about each side’s intentions increase, so does the space for miscalculation and preemptive decision-making.

In practice, the coming days will determine the direction the conflict takes. Key indicators include the scale of Iran’s response (whether it remains “symbolic” or deliberately inflicts high casualties), the willingness of the United States to expand its target list to additional elements of state infrastructure, the stance of Gulf states regarding the use of their airspace and bases, and the internal mood dynamics within Iran, where, according to analyses by CSIS and Chatham House, society is already deeply exhausted by prolonged crisis and repression.

Poland’s position regarding the February 28 attack on Iran has been cautious, focusing primarily on the safety of its citizens and coordination with allies rather than offering an explicit judgment on the military operation itself. State authorities – the president, the prime minister, and the relevant ministries – have emphasized that Poland had been informed in advance of the planned actions through allied channels and remains in constant contact with NATO partners, underscoring the importance of allied solidarity and the need to prepare for various possible scenarios. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that there is no information about injured Polish citizens, including staff at the embassy in Tehran. However, given the dynamic and unpredictable situation in the Middle East, the authorities have urged restraint in traveling to the region – particularly to Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and neighboring states – and have encouraged those currently there to leave as soon as possible. At the same time, the Operational Command and the Polish Armed Forces are monitoring the security situation, maintaining contact with Polish military contingents abroad. Relevant services are closely observing the airspace and potential consequences for air traffic, including possible closures of air corridors over the region. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister responsible for digital affairs, Krzysztof Gawkowski, additionally stressed the need to strengthen the protection of Poland’s cyber domain and to closely monitor potential cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns that may accompany the escalation of the conflict. Overall, Poland’s response centers on citizen protection, stability, and risk mitigation, while avoiding unequivocal public declarations regarding the legality or political assessment of the strike on Iran. This approach aligns with Poland’s broader posture as a U.S. ally and NATO member, while refraining from direct involvement in military operations.

In the early morning hours of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military operation against targets in Iran, involving a series of missile and air strikes in Tehran and other key cities. According to Israeli and American sources, one of the primary targets was the residence of the Supreme Leader in Tehran, described as a central command hub for both the nuclear program and Iran’s regional military activities.

Israeli media outlets and senior officials confirmed that Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike on his complex. Satellite imagery reportedly shows extensive destruction to buildings within his residence, with smoke and debris visible across the site. According to reports from Iran and Israel, the attack lasted several dozen seconds, and multiple high-ranking figures within the security apparatus were also killed in the same strike, including security adviser Ali Shamkhani, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and other key officials responsible for military and nuclear programs.

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly announced Khamenei’s death later that day, calling him “one of the most malevolent figures in history” and portraying the operation as an act of “justice” for victims of Iranian regional policy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of the “destruction of the tyrant’s complex in the heart of Tehran” and shortly thereafter stated that there were “strong indications” that Khamenei was dead, a claim that was later confirmed.

Initially, Iranian state media denied the reports, maintaining that the leader remained “strong and steadfast.” However, within hours, faced with mounting leaks and imagery, authorities officially announced his death. State television declared a 40-day national mourning period and seven days of public holidays, confirming the death of Khamenei as well as certain members of his family.

The U.S.–Israeli operation extended far beyond the residence of the Supreme Leader, targeting ballistic missile depots, launchers, air defense systems, and other key military facilities across dozens of locations throughout Iran. The Iranian Red Crescent and regional media reported more than 200 fatalities and hundreds of injuries in at least 24 of the country’s 31 provinces, with casualties including both military personnel and civilians.

In response, Iran launched large-scale missile and drone attacks against targets in Israel and against U.S. military bases in the region, including in Gulf states. According to Israeli media reports, a residential building in Tel Aviv was among the structures destroyed, numerous rocket alerts were activated in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and missile fragments fell in other parts of the country.

The United States stated that the Iranian strikes caused only “minimal damage” to its installations and resulted in no American fatalities, while emphasizing its readiness to take further military action should Tehran escalate its attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced additional “rounds” of mass strikes against Israeli military targets and 27 U.S. bases in the region, pledging an “unprecedented” response to the death of the Supreme Leader.

Ali Khamenei had been the central figure of Iran’s political system since 1989, and the office of Supreme Leader stood above the president, government, and parliament, exercising control over the armed forces, security services, state media, and the most important religious-political institutions. His death as a result of a foreign strike, rather than natural causes, not only creates a power vacuum but also challenges the existing security model that was meant to shield the regime’s core from external penetration.

Under the constitution, a new Supreme Leader is selected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is required to convene promptly once the office becomes vacant. In practice, however, the process will be shaped by the balance of power among several centers: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its senior command, the clerical establishment centered around the seminary in Qom, institutional conservatives, and pragmatic factions linked to technocrats and business elites.

Iranian media indicate that part of Khamenei’s inner circle, including key military figures and advisers, was killed alongside him, weakening the cohesion of the former ruling “core” and potentially strengthening the position of the most hierarchically organized actor, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Early reports already suggest rapid reshuffles within IRGC leadership, which analysts interpret as an effort to stabilize the security apparatus and prevent factional infighting amid national mourning and wartime mobilization.

For Iranian society, Khamenei’s death could mark the beginning of a deeper, if initially informal, debate over the structure of the regime, including the possibility of limiting the Supreme Leader’s powers or strengthening republican institutions. In the short term, however, the authorities’ priority will be maintaining order and continuing resistance to external pressure. The history of the Iranian Revolution shows that leadership transitions often open a window of opportunity for both reform and further radicalization. This trajectory will now depend on the balance of power between the religious elite and the military establishment.

The cost of the airstrikes is already extremely high. Reports from Iran speak of hundreds killed and injured across the country, with victims including both soldiers and civilians, among them students and residents of residential neighborhoods. The destruction of military and civilian infrastructure in multiple provinces is compounding Iran’s existing economic problems, such as high inflation, unemployment, and the effects of sanctions. In the coming months, this may translate into reduced access to basic goods and public services.

Iranian state media have emphasized a narrative of Khamenei’s “martyrdom,” calling for national unity, mobilization against U.S. and Israeli “aggression,” and closer ties between society and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. At the same time, many Iranians, especially in large cities, had already expressed dissatisfaction with the economic situation and political restrictions before the attacks. Analysts suggest that, in the longer term, the death of a strong authoritarian leader could encourage new forms of dissent, particularly if the repressive apparatus shows signs of weakening.

The 40-day period of national mourning declared after Khamenei’s death will likely be marked by intense propaganda and religious ceremonies. Still, it may also become a moment when social emotions spiral out of control, either in the form of pro-regime mobilization or renewed protests. For ordinary Iranians, however, the immediate priority will be survival amid the threat of further airstrikes, disruptions to energy and fuel supplies, and growing economic isolation, as many investors and trading partners are likely to avoid ties with a country embroiled in a conflict of unpredictable scope and duration.

The death of the Supreme Leader as a result of an overt military strike represents a dramatic escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel, breaking with the previous pattern of indirect confrontation and “shadow war.” For Iran’s regional allies, such as Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and pro-Iranian groups in Syria, it serves as a signal to tighten coordination and potentially escalate actions against American and Israeli interests throughout the region.

The Gulf states, which host U.S. military bases targeted by Iranian strikes, now find themselves at the center of the risk of retaliatory attacks. At the same time, they fear destabilization of critical energy routes, including tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Any serious disruption to the flow of oil and gas through this strategic corridor could quickly drive up commodity prices and trigger tensions on global energy markets, already identified by analysts as one of the key risks stemming from the escalation.

For the broader international community, from European countries to China and Russia, the killing of Khamenei complicates existing calculations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the regional balance of power. On one hand, there is the possibility that more pragmatic leadership could emerge in Tehran, potentially open to negotiations. On the other hand, the current military escalation and the retaliatory posture of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps increase the risk that Iran may seek to accelerate its nuclear capabilities as a guarantee of regime survival.

The issue of precedent is also emerging in global debate. If the killing of a head of state in a large-scale strike is deemed by part of the international community to be an “acceptable” instrument of pressure, it could encourage other powers to adopt more aggressive measures against their adversaries, weakening established norms of international law. International organizations and several states are already signaling the need for urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent a localized war from evolving into a broader regional conflict involving multiple armies and militias across the Middle East.

As a result, the death of Ali Khamenei in the Israeli-American strike becomes not only a turning point in the history of the Islamic Republic, but also a serious test for the global security system and the international community’s ability to manage one of the most significant escalations in the Middle East in decades.

Under Article 111 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, immediately after Khamenei’s death was officially confirmed on Sunday, March 1, a three-member provisional leadership council was established. Its members are:

• Masoud Pezeshkian — reformist President of Iran
• Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei — conservative Chief Justice
• A representative of the Guardian Council — a cleric selected by the Expediency Discernment Council

The council has formally assumed “all duties and authorities” of the Supreme Leader for the transitional period. However, experts emphasize that this is largely a constitutional formality. Real power remains concentrated in the hands of Khamenei’s closest associates, particularly within the structures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the broader security apparatus.

Former First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a longtime adviser to Khamenei, has been appointed acting Supreme Leader, while Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is overseeing military and security affairs.

The transition is further complicated by the fact that IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour and security adviser Ali Shamkhani were killed in the recent strikes, and the previous IRGC commander, Hossein Salami, had already been killed in Israeli airstrikes in June 2025. This means the IRGC has lost two full tiers of its top leadership within just nine months.

Scenario 1: IRGC Consolidation with a Clerical Figurehead

According to analysis by Forbes and other experts, the most likely scenario (estimated at around 35%) is the consolidation of power by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), accompanied by the formal selection of a clerical figurehead as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts. In this model, the IRGC would de facto control defense, foreign, and nuclear policy, while the newly appointed clerical leader would serve primarily to legitimize the system.

Before his death, Khamenei reportedly identified three senior clerics as potential successors—though their identities were not publicly disclosed, and his son Mojtaba was not among them. The status of these candidates following the strikes remains uncertain. Publicly mentioned names include:

• Ayatollah Bushehri – First Deputy Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, close to Khamenei but maintaining a low public profile and lacking strong ties to the IRGC.
• Ayatollah Arafi – Deputy Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, member of the Guardian Council, head of Iran’s religious seminaries, and adviser to Khamenei.
• Ali Larijani – Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, considered “the most likely successor during Khamenei’s lifetime,” but disliked by hardline conservatives due to his role in ratifying the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Power Struggle

Estimated at roughly 30%, this scenario envisions months of factional rivalry among different IRGC factions, remaining clerical elements, and provincial commanders. The loss of two tiers of IRGC leadership weakens organizational cohesion and could lead to competing attempts to seize control of key assets, such as nuclear facilities, intelligence archives, and command chains. This scenario carries the highest unpredictability for energy markets and the greatest risk of uncontrolled military escalation.

Scenario 3: Popular Uprising

Analysts estimate the probability of mass protests leading to deeper political change at approximately 25% – a figure increased due to the “January 2026 precedent” of large-scale protests in major cities, as well as President Trump’s offer of amnesty to Iranian military personnel who defect to the side of the population. Reports of spontaneous gatherings and celebrations in parts of Tehran following news of Khamenei’s death suggest that segments of society may be ready to openly challenge the regime. The key limitation of this scenario is the lack of an organized political opposition inside the country.

Scenario 4: Mojtaba Khamenei – Dynastic Succession

Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of Ali Khamenei, has long been mentioned as a leading contender. Although only a mid-ranking cleric, he effectively managed his father’s office and maintained close ties with the IRGC. However, before his death, Khamenei reportedly excluded him from the list of potential successors. A hereditary succession could provoke backlash both from critics of clerical rule and from regime supporters, who might see it as the creation of a religious dynasty, contrary to the spirit of the 1979 Revolution.

Scenario 5: Complete State Collapse

The most extreme but least likely scenario (around 10%) envisions the breakdown of Iran’s state structures. Neighboring countries are reportedly preparing contingency plans for such an outcome. However, analysts argue that even under conditions of deep crisis, Iran’s bureaucratic infrastructure and security networks remain sufficiently developed to prevent total chaos.

1. Reuters, „US and Israel strike Iran, seeking to topple its leaders”, 28.02.2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/israel-us-launch-strikes-iran-2026-02-28/​
2. Reuters, „Live: US and Israel strike Iran as Trump says actions give Iranians …”, 28.02.2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-crisis-live-explosions-tehran-israel-announces-strike-2026-02-28/​
3. The Guardian, „US and Israel attack Iran as Trump says ‘major combat operations’ under way”, live, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/28/israel-attacks-iran-as-blasts-heard-in-tehran-live-updates​
4. CNN, „Live updates: US and Israel attack Iran as Tehran retaliates across Middle East”, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl​
5. The New York Times, „Live Updates: U.S. Attacks Iran as Trump Calls for Overthrow of Government”, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02/28/world/iran-strikes-trump​
6. DW, „Explosions rock Tehran, Israel declares ‘preemptive strike’ – live”, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.dw.com/en/explosions-rock-tehran-israel-declares-preemptive-strike/live-76161011​
7. US News, „Israel and US Launch Strikes on Iran”, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-02-28/israel-and-us-launch-strikes-on-iran​
8. BBC News, „Iran latest: US and Israel target leadership sites as Tehran retaliates …”, live, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t​
9. Al Jazeera, „US and Israel attack Iran: What we know so far”, 28.02.2026.
   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-far​
10. NBC News, „Live updates: U.S. and Israel launch major attack on Iran”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/israel-iran-live-updates-rcna261099​
11. DW, „Iran targets US bases amid joint US‑Israel attacks – live”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.dw.com/en/iran-targets-us-bases-amid-joint-usisrael-attacks/live-76161011​
12. CNN (edition international), „US and Israel attack Iran as Tehran retaliates across Middle East”, 28.02.2026.
    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl​
13. TBN Israel (YouTube), „BREAKING: Israel Preemptive Strike on Iran – Explosions in Tehran LIVE!”, 27–28.02.2026.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s_BLSVbFck​
14. News18 / N18 India (YouTube), „Iran Attack LIVE | Israel-US Strike Iran, Tehran Retaliates, Missiles Hit U.S. Bases | UAE”, 27–28.02.2026.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0sr6EuD6cew​
15. Iran International, „Israel, United States strike Islamic Republic, targeting heart of regime”, 27.02.2026.
    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289915​
16. Iran International, „Iran targets US bases across Persian Gulf states, IRGC-aligned …”, 27.02.2026.
    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602282948​
17. NCRI, „Iran News in Brief – February 28, 2026”, 27–28.02.2026.
    https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-news-in-brief-news/iran-news-in-brief-february-28-2026/​
18. NPR, „U.S. and Israel strike Iran with operation ‘Epic Fury’”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730158/israel-iran-strikes-trump-us​
19. Atlantic Council, „Experts react: The US and Israel just unleashed a major attack on Iran – what’s next?”, 27.02.2026.
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/experts-react-the-us-and-israel-just-unleashed-a-major-attack-on-iran-whats-next/​
20. Reuters, „US-Israeli attack triggers fear and panic in Iran”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israeli-attack-triggers-fear-panic-iran-2026-02-28/​
21. Reuters, „US and Israel launch ‘pre-emptive’ attack against Iran”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-launched-pre-emptive-attack-against-iran-2026-02-28/​
22. Reuters, „Global reaction to Israeli, US attacks on Iran”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/global-reaction-israeli-us-attacks-iran-2026-02-28/​
23. The Economic Times, „Impact of US-Israel strikes in Iran: 627 dead, 4,870 injured, Iran’s nuclear sites ‘severely damaged’, and top generals killed”, 25.06.2025.
    https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/impact-of-us-israel-strikes-in-iran-627-dead-4870-injured-irans-nuclear-sites-severely-damaged-and-top-generals-killed/articleshow/102772701.cms​
24. Yeni Şafak, „Israeli strikes on Iran kill Revolutionary Guard commanders, Tehran warns of retaliation”, 27.02.2026.
    https://en.yenisafak.com/world/israeli-strikes-on-iran-kill-revolutionary-guard-commanders-tehran-warns-of-retaliation-3715221​
25. AdaDerana, „Israeli strikes reportedly kill senior Iranian leaders, sources say”, 27.02.2026.
    http://adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=119036​
26. IranWire, „War Coverage: Israel Strikes Iran”, 28.02.2026.
    https://iranwire.com/en/news/149630-war-coverage-israel-strikes-iran/​
27. Iran International, „Senior Revolutionary Guards commanders killed in US-Israel strikes”, 28.02.2026.
    https://iranintl.com/en/202602284254​
28. The Siasat Daily, „LIVE: Dubai Airport closed, top IRGC Commander reported killed”, 27–28.02.2026.
    https://www.siasat.com/live-israel-us-launch-strikes-on-iran-explosions-rock-tehran-3390638/​
29. The Business Standard / TBS News (w cytatach), „Israeli strikes targeted Iran’s supreme leader, president among others: Sources”, 27.02.2026.
    https://www.tbsnews.net/world/israeli-strikes-targeted-irans-supreme-leader-president-among-others-sources-915641​
30. The Guardian, „US and Israel launch strikes on Iran – what we know so far”, 28.02.2026.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/us-israel-launch-strikes-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-far-latest​
31. WarWingsDaily, „Israel’s Strikes on Iran: Key Losses & Regime Impact”, 24.06.2025.
    https://warwingsdaily.com/israels-strikes-on-iran-key-losses-regime-impact/​
32. IJELS, „Navigating Engagement with Iran: Exploring US Strategies and Options: A Futuristic Scenario and Review”.
    https://ijels.com/upload_document/issue_files/18IJELS-10420242-Navigating.pdf​
33. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, „Iran’s National Security and Operational Capability”, 2020.
    http://sjms.nu/articles/10.31374/sjms.29/galley/46/download/​
34. International Affairs and Global Strategy, „Iranian Potential Countermeasures to US Acts: In Conformity with International Law?”, 2022.
    https://iiste.org/Journals/index.php/IAGS/article/download/58536/60433​
35. Komunikat MSZ i władz RP (apel o opuszczenie Iranu i Libanu, brak informacji o poszkodowanych, priorytet bezpieczeństwa obywateli): „Atak na Iran. Władze RP reagują. MSZ: Brak informacji o poszkodowanych” – Gazeta.pl, 27.02.2026, https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/swiat/7,198075,32630494,atak-na-iran-wladze-rp-reaguja-msz-brak-informacji-o-poszkodowanych.html
36. Szczegółowy komunikat rzecznika MSZ o apelach do opuszczenia Iranu i Libanu oraz unikania podróży do całego regionu, a także o możliwych zakłóceniach ruchu lotniczego: „Atak na Iran. Jest komunikat MSZ w sprawie Polaków” – Onet, 27.02.2026, https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/atak-na-iran-jest-komunikat-msz-w-sprawie-polakow/kthsnyb,79cfc278
37. Komunikat Dowództwa Operacyjnego o sytuacji polskich kontyngentów wojskowych oraz wzmianka o wzmocnieniu monitoringu cyberprzestrzeni i reakcjach władz: „Atak na Iran. Jest komunikat polskiego Dowództwa Operacyjnego” – Onet, 27.02.2026, https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/wazny-komunikat-dowodztwa-operacyjnego-chodzi-o-atak-na-iran/2l2ppsm
38. Artykuł przedstawiający reakcję polskiego rządu, w tym wypowiedzi prezydenta Karola Nawrockiego i wicepremiera, szefa MON Władysława Kosiniaka-Kamysza: „Atak na Iran. Władze RP reagują. MSZ: Brak informacji o poszkodowanych” – Gazeta.pl (ta sama publikacja zawiera także wypowiedzi prezydenta i szefa MON), https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/swiat/7,198075,32630494,atak-na-iran-wladze-rp-reaguja-msz-brak-informacji-o-poszkodowanych.html
39. Wypowiedź premiera Donalda Tuska o odebraniu meldunków MON i MSZ, bezpieczeństwie Polaków oraz przygotowaniu na różne scenariusze: „Odebrałem meldunki. Tusk reaguje na atak na Iran” – WP Wiadomości, 27.02.2026,

https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/odebralem-meldunki-tusk-reaguje-na-atak-na-iran-7259196818045376a

40. Informacje o decyzji wicepremiera i ministra cyfryzacji Krzysztofa Gawkowskiego w sprawie wzmocnienia monitoringu polskiej cyberprzestrzeni oraz wzmianki o bezpieczeństwie Polaków i działaniach premiera i prezydenta: „Atak i odpowiedź Iranu. Wicepremier: to priorytet” – TVN24, 27.02.2026,

https://tvn24.pl/biznes/tech/atak-na-iran-wicepremier-krzysztof-gawkowski-o-polskiej-reakcji-st8923847

41. Szersze omówienie komunikatu Dowództwa Operacyjnego w kontekście ataku USA i Izraela na Iran, w tym informacje o monitorowaniu sytuacji kontyngentów i procedurach bezpieczeństwa w bazach: „Atak na Iran. Jest komunikat polskiego Dowództwa Operacyjnego” – Onet, 27.02.2026

https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wazny-komunikat-dowodztwa-operacyjnego-chodzi-o-atak-na-iran/2l2ppsm,79cfc278

Sources for Ali Khamenei’s death and analysis of succession

1. BBC News – Israel and Iran exchange fresh attacks after Iran’s Supreme Leader killed
   https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t
2. CNN – Live updates: Iran supreme leader dead as Israel renews attack
   https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl
3. CNBC – Live Updates: Israel says it has struck Tehran again, following death of Khamenei
   https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/us-iran-live-updates-khamenei-death-trump-gulf-strikes.html
4. The Washington Post – Iran’s supreme leader killed in U.S.-Israeli attack; Tehran strikes back
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/02/28/israel-strikes-iran-live-updates/
5. BBC News – Iran’s Supreme Leader killed in joint US Israeli strikes, Trump says
   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70n9wlkx3lo
6. Euronews – Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed, Israel says
   https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/28/irans-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-has-been-killed-israel-says
7. YouTube (State Media confirmation) – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Killed, Confirms State Media
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IhLJ8pTkuM
8. Al Jazeera – Iran confirms Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dead after US-Israeli attacks
   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-killed-in-us-israeli-attacks-reports
9. Axios – Iranian state media confirms Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead
   https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel
10. YouTube (Al Jazeera) – Iran confirms Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dead after US-Israeli attacks
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBSRIBmSclo
11. Al Jazeera – US-Israel attacks on Iran, day 2: Khamenei is killed, Iran retaliates
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-day-2-khamenei-is-killed-iran-retaliates
12. Reuters – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, senior Israeli official says
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-killed-senior-israeli-official-says-2026-02-28/
13. Deutsche Welle – Israel’s Netanyahu says ‘signs’ point to Khamenei being dead
    https://www.dw.com/en/israels-netanyahu-says-signs-point-to-khamenei-being-dead/live-76161011
14. The Guardian – US-Israel war on Iran: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei confirmed dead by state media
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/mar/01/us-israel-war-on-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-i-dead-latest-reports
15. Reuters – Iran vows revenge after Khamenei killed in US and Israeli strikes
    https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-crisis-live-explosions-tehran-israel-announces-strike-2026-02-28/
16. U.S. News – World Leaders React Cautiously to US and Israeli Strikes and Death of Iran Leader Ali Khamenei
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-03-01/world-leaders-react-cautiously-to-us-and-israeli-strikes-and-death-of-iran-leader-ali-khamenei
17. Critical Threats (AEI) – Iran After Ali Khamenei: Forecasting Trajectories
    https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-after-ali-khamenei-forecasting-trajectories
18. Middle East Institute – Moving to a post-Khamenei era: The role of the Assembly of Experts
    https://www.mei.edu/publications/moving-post-khamenei-era-role-assembly-experts
19. Newsweek – World Leaders React to Ayatollah Khamenei’s Death
    https://www.newsweek.com/world-leaders-react-to-ayatollah-khameneis-death-11599703
20. The Times of Israel – After Khamenei killed, Iran set for largely opaque supreme succession
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-khamenei-killed-iran-set-for-largely-opaque-supreme-succession/
21. The Boston Globe – World leaders react cautiously to US and Israeli strikes, death of Iran Ali Khamenei
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/02/28/world/world-leaders-react-cautiously-us-israeli-strikes-iran-fears-grow-wider-war/
22. Forbes – Iran Succession Crisis After Supreme Leader Khamenei Death
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/guneyyildiz/2026/02/28/khamenei-is-dead—irans-missiles-keep-flying-without-him/
23. Wikipedia – Assembly of Experts
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_of_Experts
24. Newsmax – World Leaders React Cautiously to US and Israeli Strikes and Death of Khamenei
    https://www.newsmatwitter.com/world/globaltalk/iran-us-israel-reactions-03-01-2026/2026/03/01/id/1247830/
25. ABC News Australia – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death may not lead to regime change in Iran
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-01/iran-supreme-leaders-death-may-not-spark-regime-change/106402086
26. CNN – Who might replace Iran’s supreme leader? There’s no clear successor
    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/28/middleeast/iran-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-replacement-intl-hnk
27. TIME – How the World Is Reacting to the Attack on Iran
    https://time.com/7381811/iran-war-world-leaders-reaction-russia-china-europe/
28. BESA Center – What Will Happen When Khamenei Dies?
    https://besacenter.org/when-khamenei-dies/
29. Wikipedia – 2026 Iranian Supreme Leader election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_Supreme_Leader_election
30. South China Morning Post – Iran strikes day 2: Trump threatens more hits, Khamenei dead
    https://www.scmp.com/news/us/diplomacy/article/3344994/global-powers-divided-china-expresses-deep-concern-over-us-israel-strikes
31. Euronews – If Israel kills Iran’s Khamenei, could his son Mojtaba be the next supreme leader?
    https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/19/if-israel-kills-irans-khamenei-could-his-son-mojtaba-be-the-next-supreme-leader
32. Ynet News – Tehran mourns, but who will succeed Khamenei?
    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1jvzewfwx
33. CNBC – Iran may ‘lash out harder’ as Khamenei’s death puts Tehran on a war footing
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/us-israel-attacks-strikes-iran-retaliate-china-russia-allies.html
34. Seoul Economic Daily – Iran Forms Three-Member Leadership Council After Khamenei’s Death
    https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/03/01/iran-forms-three-member-leadership-council-after-khameneis
35. Fortune – Russia accuses America of ‘pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression’ against Iran
    https://fortune.com/2026/02/28/russia-reaction-iran-attack-trump-israel-world-leaders-reactions/
36. FDD (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) – Iran’s House of Cards
    https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/07/27/irans-house-of-cards/
37. Gulf News – Iran president, 2 officials to lead transition after Khamenei’s death
    https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-president-2-officials-to-lead-transition-after-khameneis-death-state-tv-1.500459302
38. Iran International – Khamenei picks possible successors amid war, son Mojtaba not among them
    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506218672
39. Anadolu Agency – ‘Pandora’s box’ to open, leading to dangerous escalation if Iran’s supreme leader killed, Kremlin warns
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/pandoras-box-to-open-leading-to-dangerous-escalation-if-irans-supreme-leader-killed-kremlin-warns
40. Iran International – Khamenei picks possible successors amid war, son Mojtaba not among them (alt. link)
    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202506218321