As of January 16, 2026, the situation indicates ongoing mass anti-government protests in Iran, which began in Tehran on December 28, 2025. They started as a strike by merchants at the Grand Bazaar against rising prices and the devaluation of the rial, but quickly spread to other cities, reaching a peak in the first week of January 2026. The protests have encompassed all 31 provinces of the country, with key centers in Isfahan, Mashhad, Tabriz, Shiraz, Kermanshah, as well as provinces inhabited by ethnic minorities such as Kurdistan and Baluchistan. Initially driven by economic grievances, the demonstrations rapidly evolved into a broader movement challenging the legitimacy of the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to human rights monitoring organizations such as Amnesty International, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), and Iran Human Rights, the death toll ranges from 12,000 to as many as 20,000 people. These figures include both demonstrators and members of the security forces, with more than 18,000 arrests reported. However, these data are not entirely reliable due to the concealment of some casualties by the Iranian authorities, who imposed a total communications blackout, including restrictions on Internet access and telecommunications, starting on January 8, 2026. This has significantly contributed to the difficulty of verifying information and reporting on events.
Photo: Internet
The protests themselves have a complex background. They combine economic, social, and political factors, with the primary catalyst being an economic crisis exacerbated by long-term international sanctions and domestic political decisions that accumulated over the years, leading to mounting public dissatisfaction and ultimately to the events of December 28. At the beginning of 2025, Iran’s currency, the rial, lost more than half of its value against the U.S. dollar, reaching an exchange rate of approximately 1.4–1.5 million rials per dollar on the black market. Inflation reached 40–70%, depending on the goods category, with food prices rising by as much as 72% year-on-year, making access to food itself a critical problem for millions of Iranians. Since the 1979 revolution, the Iranian currency has lost roughly 20,000% of its value. In addition, UN and U.S. sanctions, imposed after the expiration of the JCPOA nuclear agreement in October 2025, reduced oil exports to below 500,000 barrels per day, only a fraction of previous levels. Iran’s oil tanker fleet of 560 vessels has also seen its effectiveness significantly reduced.
The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian introduced reforms, including the abolition of the preferential exchange rate and the temporary suspension of social subsidies, including monthly food allowances of USD 7, but these measures led to further price increases and the depletion of budgetary resources. Unemployment, particularly among young people, exceeded 30%, deepening social frustration. Iran’s budget is also burdened by the cost of supporting militant organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars annually, while the country struggles with shortages of water, energy, and basic goods. The economic crisis was further intensified by the effects of the Twelve-Day War against Israel in June 2025, which resulted in significant infrastructure damage, weakened proxy allies, and deeper economic isolation. The conflict, initiated by Israeli preemptive strikes on nuclear facilities and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bases, ended with substantial Iranian losses, including the loss of the capability to enrich uranium to levels close to the nuclear weapons threshold. UN sanctions imposed in September 2025 further restricted trade, leading to a decline in foreign investment and rising corruption in the public sector.
The death of Mahsa Amini, linked to the enforcement of hijab regulations, did not lead to meaningful reforms despite promises of easing domestic policies. Repression against women, ethnic minorities such as Kurds and Baluch, and political dissidents has remained high, with a growing number of executions exceeding 800 in 2025. Iran has also faced natural disasters, including droughts and water shortages affecting agricultural provinces, which further fueled public discontent. At the same time, declining voter turnout (below 40% in the 2024 elections) points to a severe erosion of the system’s legitimacy, so much so that Iran’s streets are openly discussing the end of the rule of the ayatollahs. The war with Israel weakened the regime’s international standing, further eroding already low public trust. Analysts note that the accumulation of these problems – international isolation, elite corruption, and the lack of reforms – created ideal conditions for an explosion of unrest, in which protest slogans evolved from economic demands to openly anti-regime calls, including demands for the overthrow of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a return to a secular state reminiscent of the pre-1979 era. The current events echo previous waves of protests, such as those in 2019 against fuel price hikes (with 1,500 killed) and 2022 following Amini’s death (with over 500 victims). However, the scale of the current demonstrations, encompassing the middle class, workers, students, and ethnic minorities, suggests a more profound legitimacy crisis than in earlier movements. The protests are also geographically broader, with 512 locations across 180 cities. Women play a significant role, publicly removing their hijabs as a symbol of resistance to social repression. The situation intensified in the first week of January, when political slogans such as “death to the dictator” and “down with Khamenei” appeared in the streets. Clashes with security forces escalated, including the use of tear gas and live ammunition. Between January 4 and 7, protests reached their peak, with demonstrations in over 180 cities across all provinces. In Tehran and ethnic minority provinces, attacks were carried out against police stations and government buildings, and the number of casualties rose dramatically. By January 7, more than 1,500 people had been killed, including 147 members of the security forces. At the height of unrest between January 8 and 10, 2026, following a total Internet blackout, reports indicated intensified repression involving machine-gun fire and the use of foreign mercenaries. On January 12, the Tehran government organized pro-regime counterdemonstrations, accusing protesters of cooperating with foreign enemies. In a speech, Khamenei described the protests as an external conspiracy and called for their suppression. As of January 16, 2026, protest activity has declined due to repression and communication blackouts, but sporadic demonstrations continue.
Map: The Guardian, ISW
During the night of January 14–15 (Polish time), signals of de-escalation began to emerge. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the killing had stopped following assurances from Iran and that airspace had been reopened. Tehran denied plans for executions, although the opposition continues to identify additional victims. The United Nations Security Council, at the request of the United States, discussed the situation, and the number of protests reportedly fell to six or seven provinces. However, it cannot be ruled out that their actual scale is larger, concealed by the information blackout used to hide the actual situation. In larger cities, the level of organization remains higher, as seen in incidents such as the destruction of monuments to Qasem Soleimani. The scale of demonstrations in smaller towns is unknown due to the lack of media access.
President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed understanding for the country’s economic problems but supported the repression, accusing the United States and Israel of fueling the unrest. Ali Khamenei described the protests as a conspiracy by enemies and called for a decisive response. Units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij were deployed to cities, tasked with restoring order by force. Reports also indicate Russian support, including deliveries of vehicles and helicopters. Iran’s judiciary announced fast-track trials and executions for those deemed insurgents. The international community is monitoring the situation, expressing concern over the scale of repression while calling for restraint. Reactions vary depending on geopolitical interests. The United States, under President Donald Trump, publicly supported the protesters, issuing a statement on January 2 declaring readiness to assist and warning of military intervention in the event of mass executions. For now, the Iranian government has paused the implementation of death sentences, according to the White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, who stated that Donald Trump and his team communicated to the Iranian regime that if the killing continued, there would be major consequences, and noted that the president understands today that 800 executions that were scheduled and supposed to take place yesterday were halted. The latest information as of January 16 is Donald Trump’s decision to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, intended to increase the credibility of a potential strike on Iran. It remains unclear whether this involves the carrier currently in the South China Sea or two others that departed in recent days from bases in Norfolk on the U.S. East Coast and San Diego on the West Coast.
On January 12, the United States imposed new sanctions and is considering tariffs on countries trading with Iran. The U.S. president also met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss possible options regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli government expressed solidarity with the demonstrators, accusing the regime of repression. Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, described the Iranian ambassador’s statements as “crocodile tears of a murderous regime.”
Source: Danny Danon via X
Israel remains on high alert, fearing destabilization in the event of a potential regime collapse, while refraining from direct military involvement. The Group of Seven (G7) condemned the high death toll and threatened additional sanctions. The United Nations Secretary-General expressed shock at the use of force and called for dialogue. Amnesty International documented mass unlawful killings and called for a special session of the UN Security Council. The European Union and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, have maintained a cautious distance, fearing chaos following a regime change. Russia and China are distancing themselves from Tehran, prioritizing their own interests, although Russia is reportedly supplying equipment used to suppress protests. The Iranian opposition in exile, including Reza Pahlavi, has called for continued protests. Solidarity demonstrations have also taken place in London, Paris, and Istanbul.
Analysts are divided over the future of the Iranian government. Some see the beginning of a new revolution, while others compare the current situation to regimes in Iraq or Syria, where brutality enabled survival. The situation remains highly dynamic, with the potential for international escalation. Deep structural problems, a weakening economy, repression of protesters, and international isolation suggest that without reforms, the regime may face further destabilization. The current events pose significant challenges to Middle Eastern stability, with potential impacts on energy prices and migration flows.