For months, the U.S. President has been suggesting that he is closer to the Kremlin than to Brussels. In recent days, he has been speaking in unison with the leader of the Russian Federation. He no longer merely implies that withdrawing Russian troops from the territories occupied since 2014 is impossible—he now openly states that Ukraine started the war and has done nothing to end it.
WSK PZL-Świdnik company facilities / Photo: Jakub Link-Lenczowski, MILMAG
At the same time, he completely ignores European allies in his discussions. For the Russians, Trump’s call to Putin—over the heads of European politicians—became proof that Russia is once again being treated as it should have been from the very beginning: with great esteem and respect, as one of the world’s two greatest powers.
The weakening of NATO’s allied relations is a source of joy for Russia. The media emphasize that the recently concluded Munich Security Conference took place in an atmosphere entirely different from what its regular participants and observers were accustomed to. Once a showcase of Euro-Atlantic solidarity, the forum has now become a symbol of division between the new U.S. administration and old Europe.
>>>Trump proves that Europe must take care of itself<<<
And Europe should finally realize that it cannot rely on its American ally. Although numerous signed treaties are in place, there is no certainty that Washington will keep its word. Meanwhile, European NATO members are advancing their armament programs at a very slow pace.
Although the European part of NATO could already handle a potential Russian aggression without major difficulties—thanks to its significant numerical and technological advantage in the air, as well as its technological superiority in ground forces—it cannot afford to be complacent.
Europe is home to some of the world’s largest defense manufacturers, yet many of them have been shut down or had their production scaled back. In fact, the European defense industry has severely limited capacity for large-scale production of ammunition, artillery systems, and tanks.
KNDS Deutschland facilities in Kassel / Photo: KNDS Deutschland
Neglected production
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the tank remains the most important tool on the modern battlefield. Unfortunately, European countries have almost completely lost their ability to produce tanks. Currently, the only active production lines are in Germany. However, in the near future, Poland, the United Kingdom, and France may join them.
Europe’s capacity for armored vehicle production is far too small. While the technological gap between Western and Russian equipment is significant, quantity still matters. The British and French can produce around 100 wheeled armored vehicles per year, Germany about 150, and Poland up to 100 Rosomaks annually. While this pace is sufficient for gradual modernization, it is insufficient to deter Russia.
Given NATO’s limited armored reserves and Ukraine’s urgent need for new vehicles, restoring production capabilities would be the most logical step. Yet, there has been no serious debate or even consideration of such a move.
Leonardo facilities in Caselle Torinese (Turin-Caselle) / Photo: Jakub Link-Lenczowski, MILMAG
Increase in spending
Trump is certainly right about one thing—European NATO members must increase their defense spending. The leaders in military expenditures are the countries on NATO’s eastern flank, with Poland being the undisputed leader, planning to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defense this year. Estonia ranks second with 3.43%, followed by Latvia, which rounds out the podium with 3.15% of GDP allocated to defense.
The ranking looks slightly different in terms of actual spending. Germany allocates the most to its military, followed by the United Kingdom and France, both of which slightly exceed the 2% GDP threshold. Poland ranks only fourth, despite allocating twice the percentage of its GDP to defense.
Increasing defense spending would not only allow for expanding the size of the armed forces but, more importantly, for reviving abandoned production lines, launching new research and development programs, and reducing dependence on the American defense industry.
With the United States under Donald Trump and Elon Musk becoming an increasingly uncertain ally, Europe should start focusing on itself and investing in its own defense industry. This is especially true for Poland, the largest country on NATO’s eastern flank, which is currently making the biggest military purchases from the U.S. in the history of bilateral relations.