On Saturday, January 24, 2026, the United States Department of Defense released a new 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS 2026) – a key defense planning document that reorders military threat priorities posed by major adversaries such as China and Russia. The strategy focuses on rebuilding U.S. military power in the face of growing global threats.
Photos: United States Department of Defense
The 34-page NDS 2026 underscores the need to restore the United States’ position as the world’s most powerful military after a period the authors describe as having been squandered by previous administrations (citing issues such as open borders, neglect of influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the offshoring of the defense industrial base). The approach is grounded in practical realism focused on the security, freedom, and prosperity of Americans, rather than what it characterizes as utopian idealism. The core objectives are defending the homeland, deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, shifting a greater share of the burden to allies, and revitalizing the defense industrial base.
In contrast to the 2022 National Defense Strategy released during the presidency of Joe Biden, which emphasized integrated deterrence and global climate challenges, the 2026 version is more isolationist and U.S.-centric. It rejects nation-building missions and stresses a warrior ethos and readiness for decisive operations. This marks a return to an “America First” posture, with military power as a primary instrument of diplomacy. By comparison, in 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term, when Jim Mattis served as Secretary of Defense, the Pentagon identified revisionist powers such as China and Russia as the principal challenges to U.S. security.
Security Environment
The document offers a realistic assessment of threats, prioritizing those that directly affect the United States, while delegating lesser challenges to allies. It avoids treating all global problems as equally important.
- Homeland and the Western Hemisphere: The primary concerns are illegal immigration and drug trafficking (notably fentanyl), with drug cartels designated as terrorist organizations. Operations such as Southern Spear and Absolute Resolve are aimed at countering these threats. Direct threats include nuclear, conventional, and space-based attacks, as well as cyber threats and Islamist terrorism. The strategy highlights that, in the Western Hemisphere, adversaries, China and Russia, are eroding U.S. influence, for example around the Panama Canal and Greenland. In response, a so-called Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine has been introduced, enabling unilateral U.S. action.
- China is identified as the second most powerful country in the world, rapidly expanding its military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. Threats from Beijing include denying U.S. access to critical trade and economic routes in a region that accounts for more than half of the global economy.
- Russia remains a persistent threat to NATO’s eastern flank, possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, a substantial defense industry, and significant cyber capabilities, while simultaneously facing demographic and economic challenges. The document underscores the war in Ukraine, but notes that the economies of European NATO members should enable allies to handle conventional defense independently.
- Iran has been weakened by Operation Midnight Hammer (aimed at degrading its nuclear program) and Operation Rough Rider (against Yemen’s Houthis), yet it is rebuilding its capabilities. Tehran continues to support Hezbollah and Hamas, posing ongoing risks to Middle Eastern stability.
- North Korea represents a direct threat to South Korea and Japan, while its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) pose a danger to the continental United States.
The United States Department of Defense warns of the risk of coordinated, multi-theater attacks (for example involving China, Russia, and Iran). As a result, it calls for increased defense investment by allies, allowing the United States to focus on its highest priorities.
While the document is pragmatic, critics, particularly among Democrats, may fault it for emphasizing border security and narcotics at the expense of previously highlighted issues such as climate change. For Poland, as a NATO member, the Russian threat is paramount – the strategy suggests that the United States expects Europe to shoulder a greater share of responsibility for defending Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank.
Strategic Approach
The strategy is built around four lines of effort, designed to ensure flexibility and readiness to deter or win wars.
- The top priority is border security, deportations, and close cooperation with the United States Department of Homeland Security in this area, along with the fight against narco-terrorism. Other key objectives include securing strategic areas such as Greenland, continued modernization of nuclear deterrence forces, strengthened cyber defense, and the development of a next-generation, multilayer missile defense program – SHIELD (Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense), more widely known as the Golden Dome for America.
- Another pillar is the construction of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) defenses along China’s First Island Chain. Demonstrations of strength vis-à-vis China are intended to support Trump’s diplomacy, without seeking dominance or direct confrontation. Notably, the document does not mention Taiwan.
- The strategy also calls for increased pressure on allies, who are expected to focus on countering lower-level threats, with the United States playing a supporting role. Within NATO, defense spending at the level of 5% of GDP is to apply, as agreed at the 2025 Hague Summit. NATO in Europe is to concentrate on conventional defense, while the United States will seek to strengthen Israel, and South Korea is expected to more effectively deter North Korea.
- Strengthening the defense industrial base is another core objective, involving the mobilization of production capacity, the adoption of innovations such as artificial intelligence and drones, and industrial cooperation with allies. The ultimate goal is to ensure that the armed forces are prepared for prolonged operations.
Analysis of the Approach
The strategy is holistic, but highly dependent on allies. For Poland, this translates into continued pressure to further increase defense spending – in 2026, this is set at 4.81% of GDP, or 201 billion PLN, which would account for approximately 21.7% of total state expenditure. The United States is pushing for greater burden-sharing within NATO, but this also creates a risk: if allies fail to meet expectations, Washington may reduce its engagement in Europe, potentially weakening deterrence against Russia.
NDS 2026 represents a shift toward peace through strength, maintaining readiness to fight if necessary while prioritizing diplomatic pressure. It presses for Europe’s NATO members to assume greater responsibility for defense, including support for Ukraine, which could strengthen Poland’s role as a leader on NATO’s eastern flank – but only with sustained investment.
Beyond the Western Hemisphere, which is the top priority for the United States Department of Defense, the strategy focuses more on China than on Europe. In the context of Russia’s aggressive policies, this shift carries inherent risks. At the same time, the document emphasizes that the combined strength of the United States and its allies can prevent a world war.
Finally, it is worth noting that the 2026 National Defense Strategy is a lower-tier document compared to the 2025 National Security Strategy of the United States (NSS 2025) published on December 5 of the previous year. While the NSS integrates military, economic, diplomatic, and domestic policy issues, the Department of Defense document focuses specifically on national defense. The NDS supports the objectives of the National Security Strategy, but places greater emphasis on the armed forces themselves.
The full text of the 2026 National Defense Strategy is provided below:
